Evaluation and projections of surface air temperature over the Tibetan Plateau from CMIP6 and CMIP5: warming trend and uncertainty

This paper compares the historical simulations and future projections of surface air temperature over Tibetan Plateau updated Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase (CMIP6) precedent project (CMIP5) to quantify differences in under different scenarios. evaluation for period (1961–2005) indicates that multi-model ensemble (MME) mean CMIP6 outperforms CMIP5 MME simulating spatial–temporal characteristics temperature. The changes relative 1986–2005 are projected near-term (2021–2040), mid-term (2041–2060), long-term (2081–2100) Shared Socio-economic Pathway (SSP)2-4.5 SSP5-8.5 Representative Concentration (RCP)4.5 RCP8.5 CMIP5. shows larger increases projection compared with near- both SSPs RCPs. projects higher accelerated warming trends MME. Additionally, rates show a significant elevation dependency, especially projection. uncertainty is quantified by square root error variance (SREV) method. results record clear reduction primarily concentrated at zones 5000 m. analysis great significance policy-makers make socio-economic adjustments warming. study conducive credibility enhances our comprehension SSP RCP